seriea odds generated at: 14:33:48 22/05/2022
value bets
| Team/Fixture | Market | Calc Prob (%) | Bookies Odds | Kelly Criterion (%) | Alpha (%) | Bookies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| inter-vs-sampdoria | home_win | 92.35 | 1.14 | 0.86 | 5.28 | 188Bet |
| Sassuolo | O0_5 | 71.71 | 1.50 | 0.53 | 7.57 | Betway |
| spezia-vs-napoli | away_win | 79.29 | 1.59 | 0.66 | 26.07 | 188Bet |
team analysis
| Team | Fixture | Team xG | Team xG Conceded | Form | Table Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | inter v. sampdoria | 1.17 | 1.48 | 0.936 | 15 |
| Inter | inter v. sampdoria | 2.99 | 1.04 | 1.108 | 2 |
| Udinese | salernitana v. udinese | 2.02 | 2.09 | 0.892 | 13 |
| Salernitana | salernitana v. udinese | 1.94 | 1.09 | 0.988 | 17 |
| Sassuolo | sassuolo v. ac milan | 1.39 | 1.96 | 0.840 | 11 |
| AC Milan | sassuolo v. ac milan | 2.10 | 0.68 | 1.196 | 1 |
| Napoli | spezia v. napoli | 1.95 | 1.18 | 1.024 | 3 |
| Spezia | spezia v. napoli | 1.35 | 2.48 | 0.808 | 16 |
| Cagliari | venezia v. cagliari | 0.92 | 1.37 | 0.876 | 18 |
| Venezia | venezia v. cagliari | 1.12 | 2.65 | 0.844 | 20 |
match results
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| inter v. sampdoria | 92.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| salernitana v. udinese | 71.4% | 10.1% | 18.3% |
| sassuolo v. ac milan | 18.3% | 11.6% | 69.9% |
| spezia v. napoli | 10.8% | 9.9% | 79.4% |
| venezia v. cagliari | 30.6% | 19.3% | 50.0% |
goal probability matrix
| TeamName | zero | one | two | three | four | five | six |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 37.7% | 36.8% | 18.0% | 5.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Inter | 2.4% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 20.7% | 19.4% | 14.4% | 9.0% |
| Udinese | 21.3% | 32.9% | 25.5% | 13.2% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Salernitana | 6.6% | 18.0% | 24.4% | 22.1% | 15.0% | 8.1% | 3.7% |
| Sassuolo | 28.3% | 35.7% | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| AC Milan | 10.3% | 23.5% | 26.6% | 20.1% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Napoli | 9.4% | 22.2% | 26.3% | 20.7% | 12.2% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Spezia | 38.1% | 36.8% | 17.8% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cagliari | 26.7% | 35.3% | 23.3% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Venezia | 35.6% | 36.8% | 19.0% | 6.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
backtest performance (beta)
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