liam hartley




seriea odds generated at: 14:33:48 22/05/2022



value bets

Team/Fixture Market Calc Prob (%) Bookies Odds Kelly Criterion (%) Alpha (%) Bookies
inter-vs-sampdoria home_win 92.35 1.14 0.86 5.28 188Bet
Sassuolo O0_5 71.71 1.50 0.53 7.57 Betway
spezia-vs-napoli away_win 79.29 1.59 0.66 26.07 188Bet


team analysis

Team Fixture Team xG Team xG Conceded Form Table Position
Sampdoria inter v. sampdoria 1.17 1.48 0.936 15
Inter inter v. sampdoria 2.99 1.04 1.108 2
Udinese salernitana v. udinese 2.02 2.09 0.892 13
Salernitana salernitana v. udinese 1.94 1.09 0.988 17
Sassuolo sassuolo v. ac milan 1.39 1.96 0.840 11
AC Milan sassuolo v. ac milan 2.10 0.68 1.196 1
Napoli spezia v. napoli 1.95 1.18 1.024 3
Spezia spezia v. napoli 1.35 2.48 0.808 16
Cagliari venezia v. cagliari 0.92 1.37 0.876 18
Venezia venezia v. cagliari 1.12 2.65 0.844 20


match results

Fixture Home Draw Away
inter v. sampdoria 92.6% 4.1% 3.5%
salernitana v. udinese 71.4% 10.1% 18.3%
sassuolo v. ac milan 18.3% 11.6% 69.9%
spezia v. napoli 10.8% 9.9% 79.4%
venezia v. cagliari 30.6% 19.3% 50.0%


goal probability matrix

TeamName zero one two three four five six
Sampdoria 37.7% 36.8% 18.0% 5.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Inter 2.4% 8.9% 16.7% 20.7% 19.4% 14.4% 9.0%
Udinese 21.3% 32.9% 25.5% 13.2% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4%
Salernitana 6.6% 18.0% 24.4% 22.1% 15.0% 8.1% 3.7%
Sassuolo 28.3% 35.7% 22.6% 9.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2%
AC Milan 10.3% 23.5% 26.6% 20.1% 11.4% 5.2% 2.0%
Napoli 9.4% 22.2% 26.3% 20.7% 12.2% 5.8% 2.3%
Spezia 38.1% 36.8% 17.8% 5.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Cagliari 26.7% 35.3% 23.3% 10.3% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Venezia 35.6% 36.8% 19.0% 6.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1%




backtest performance (beta)

backtest performance for the seriea

backtest performance is currently not representative of actual performance
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by liam hartley x estephe corlin



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