liam hartley




ligue1 odds generated at: 19:33:51 21/05/2022



value bets

Team/Fixture Market Calc Prob (%) Bookies Odds Kelly Criterion (%) Alpha (%) Bookies
angers-vs-montpellier home_win 72.32 2.05 0.59 48.26 188Bet
angers-vs-montpellier 1X 88.41 1.33 0.80 17.58 Bet365
angers-vs-montpellier BTTS_N 64.19 2.35 0.49 50.85 Bet365
clermont-foot-vs-lyon away_win 57.00 1.91 0.34 8.87 188Bet
lille-vs-rennes 1X 54.00 2.02 0.31 9.08 Bet365
paris-saint-germain-vs-metz U2_5 43.44 4.60 0.31 99.85 Bet365
paris-saint-germain-vs-metz U3_5 65.84 2.50 0.52 64.60 Bet365
paris-saint-germain-vs-metz U5_5 92.10 1.30 0.86 19.73 Bet365
paris-saint-germain-vs-metz U6_5 96.89 1.14 0.94 10.46 Bet365


team analysis

Team Fixture Team xG Team xG Conceded Form Table Position
Angers angers v. montpellier 1.08 1.36 0.860 14
Montpellier angers v. montpellier 1.13 2.02 0.764 13
Bordeaux stade brestois 29 v. bordeaux 1.09 1.79 0.788 20
Stade Brestois 29 stade brestois 29 v. bordeaux 1.43 2.01 1.028 11
Lyon clermont foot v. lyon 2.87 1.53 1.012 8
Clermont Foot clermont foot v. lyon 1.07 1.09 0.964 16
Monaco lens v. monaco 2.34 1.06 1.196 2
Lens lens v. monaco 1.13 0.84 1.060 7
Lille lille v. rennes 1.07 1.11 0.932 10
Rennes lille v. rennes 1.32 1.05 1.004 4
Lorient lorient v. estac troyes 0.87 1.66 0.876 17
Estac Troyes lorient v. estac troyes 1.32 1.25 0.848 15
Marseille marseille v. strasbourg 1.51 1.08 1.032 3
Strasbourg marseille v. strasbourg 1.52 0.87 1.036 5
Nantes nantes v. saint etienne 1.39 2.44 0.948 9
Saint Etienne nantes v. saint etienne 1.19 1.78 0.780 19
Paris Saint Germain paris saint germain v. metz 2.03 0.99 0.996 1
Metz paris saint germain v. metz 1.22 1.65 0.924 18
Nice reims v. nice 1.59 1.43 1.004 6
Reims reims v. nice 1.05 1.22 1.020 12


match results

Fixture Home Draw Away
angers v. montpellier 72.5% 16.1% 11.6%
stade brestois 29 v. bordeaux 62.1% 14.7% 23.1%
clermont foot v. lyon 29.4% 13.6% 57.1%
lens v. monaco 31.2% 15.8% 53.2%
lille v. rennes 34.6% 19.5% 46.1%
lorient v. estac troyes 28.7% 19.2% 52.1%
marseille v. strasbourg 41.8% 17.1% 41.2%
nantes v. saint etienne 57.5% 14.2% 28.4%
paris saint germain v. metz 84.0% 9.2% 6.7%
reims v. nice 51.8% 15.7% 32.7%


goal probability matrix

TeamName zero one two three four five six
Angers 20.7% 32.6% 25.7% 13.5% 5.3% 1.7% 0.4%
Montpellier 54.9% 32.9% 9.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bordeaux 31.7% 36.4% 20.9% 8.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Stade Brestois 29 16.3% 29.6% 26.8% 16.2% 7.3% 2.7% 0.8%
Lyon 13.5% 27.0% 27.1% 18.1% 9.1% 3.6% 1.2%
Clermont Foot 22.2% 33.4% 25.2% 12.6% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4%
Monaco 19.0% 31.5% 26.2% 14.5% 6.0% 2.0% 0.6%
Lens 27.3% 35.4% 23.0% 10.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Lille 33.1% 36.6% 20.3% 7.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Rennes 27.9% 35.6% 22.7% 9.7% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Lorient 36.8% 36.8% 18.4% 6.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
Estac Troyes 26.0% 35.0% 23.6% 10.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Marseille 24.6% 34.5% 24.2% 11.3% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3%
Strasbourg 24.8% 34.6% 24.1% 11.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Nantes 15.2% 28.6% 27.0% 16.9% 8.0% 3.0% 0.9%
Saint Etienne 25.2% 34.7% 23.9% 11.0% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Paris Saint Germain 10.3% 23.5% 26.6% 20.1% 11.4% 5.2% 2.0%
Metz 50.6% 34.5% 11.8% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Nice 26.0% 35.0% 23.6% 10.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Reims 19.0% 31.5% 26.2% 14.5% 6.0% 2.0% 0.6%




backtest performance (beta)

backtest performance for the ligue1

backtest performance is currently not representative of actual performance
please click here to see this seasons performance

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by liam hartley x estephe corlin



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