ligue1 odds generated at: 19:33:51 21/05/2022
value bets
| Team/Fixture | Market | Calc Prob (%) | Bookies Odds | Kelly Criterion (%) | Alpha (%) | Bookies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| angers-vs-montpellier | home_win | 72.32 | 2.05 | 0.59 | 48.26 | 188Bet |
| angers-vs-montpellier | 1X | 88.41 | 1.33 | 0.80 | 17.58 | Bet365 |
| angers-vs-montpellier | BTTS_N | 64.19 | 2.35 | 0.49 | 50.85 | Bet365 |
| clermont-foot-vs-lyon | away_win | 57.00 | 1.91 | 0.34 | 8.87 | 188Bet |
| lille-vs-rennes | 1X | 54.00 | 2.02 | 0.31 | 9.08 | Bet365 |
| paris-saint-germain-vs-metz | U2_5 | 43.44 | 4.60 | 0.31 | 99.85 | Bet365 |
| paris-saint-germain-vs-metz | U3_5 | 65.84 | 2.50 | 0.52 | 64.60 | Bet365 |
| paris-saint-germain-vs-metz | U5_5 | 92.10 | 1.30 | 0.86 | 19.73 | Bet365 |
| paris-saint-germain-vs-metz | U6_5 | 96.89 | 1.14 | 0.94 | 10.46 | Bet365 |
team analysis
| Team | Fixture | Team xG | Team xG Conceded | Form | Table Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | angers v. montpellier | 1.08 | 1.36 | 0.860 | 14 |
| Montpellier | angers v. montpellier | 1.13 | 2.02 | 0.764 | 13 |
| Bordeaux | stade brestois 29 v. bordeaux | 1.09 | 1.79 | 0.788 | 20 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | stade brestois 29 v. bordeaux | 1.43 | 2.01 | 1.028 | 11 |
| Lyon | clermont foot v. lyon | 2.87 | 1.53 | 1.012 | 8 |
| Clermont Foot | clermont foot v. lyon | 1.07 | 1.09 | 0.964 | 16 |
| Monaco | lens v. monaco | 2.34 | 1.06 | 1.196 | 2 |
| Lens | lens v. monaco | 1.13 | 0.84 | 1.060 | 7 |
| Lille | lille v. rennes | 1.07 | 1.11 | 0.932 | 10 |
| Rennes | lille v. rennes | 1.32 | 1.05 | 1.004 | 4 |
| Lorient | lorient v. estac troyes | 0.87 | 1.66 | 0.876 | 17 |
| Estac Troyes | lorient v. estac troyes | 1.32 | 1.25 | 0.848 | 15 |
| Marseille | marseille v. strasbourg | 1.51 | 1.08 | 1.032 | 3 |
| Strasbourg | marseille v. strasbourg | 1.52 | 0.87 | 1.036 | 5 |
| Nantes | nantes v. saint etienne | 1.39 | 2.44 | 0.948 | 9 |
| Saint Etienne | nantes v. saint etienne | 1.19 | 1.78 | 0.780 | 19 |
| Paris Saint Germain | paris saint germain v. metz | 2.03 | 0.99 | 0.996 | 1 |
| Metz | paris saint germain v. metz | 1.22 | 1.65 | 0.924 | 18 |
| Nice | reims v. nice | 1.59 | 1.43 | 1.004 | 6 |
| Reims | reims v. nice | 1.05 | 1.22 | 1.020 | 12 |
match results
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| angers v. montpellier | 72.5% | 16.1% | 11.6% |
| stade brestois 29 v. bordeaux | 62.1% | 14.7% | 23.1% |
| clermont foot v. lyon | 29.4% | 13.6% | 57.1% |
| lens v. monaco | 31.2% | 15.8% | 53.2% |
| lille v. rennes | 34.6% | 19.5% | 46.1% |
| lorient v. estac troyes | 28.7% | 19.2% | 52.1% |
| marseille v. strasbourg | 41.8% | 17.1% | 41.2% |
| nantes v. saint etienne | 57.5% | 14.2% | 28.4% |
| paris saint germain v. metz | 84.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% |
| reims v. nice | 51.8% | 15.7% | 32.7% |
goal probability matrix
| TeamName | zero | one | two | three | four | five | six |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 20.7% | 32.6% | 25.7% | 13.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Montpellier | 54.9% | 32.9% | 9.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bordeaux | 31.7% | 36.4% | 20.9% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 16.3% | 29.6% | 26.8% | 16.2% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Lyon | 13.5% | 27.0% | 27.1% | 18.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Clermont Foot | 22.2% | 33.4% | 25.2% | 12.6% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Monaco | 19.0% | 31.5% | 26.2% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Lens | 27.3% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Lille | 33.1% | 36.6% | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Rennes | 27.9% | 35.6% | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Lorient | 36.8% | 36.8% | 18.4% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Estac Troyes | 26.0% | 35.0% | 23.6% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Marseille | 24.6% | 34.5% | 24.2% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Strasbourg | 24.8% | 34.6% | 24.1% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Nantes | 15.2% | 28.6% | 27.0% | 16.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Saint Etienne | 25.2% | 34.7% | 23.9% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain | 10.3% | 23.5% | 26.6% | 20.1% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Metz | 50.6% | 34.5% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nice | 26.0% | 35.0% | 23.6% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Reims | 19.0% | 31.5% | 26.2% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
backtest performance (beta)
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