bundesliga odds generated at: 19:33:42 14/05/2022
value bets
| Team/Fixture | Market | Calc Prob (%) | Bookies Odds | Kelly Criterion (%) | Alpha (%) | Bookies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | O0_5 | 86.51 | 1.25 | 0.76 | 8.14 | Betway |
| VfL Wolfsburg | O1_5 | 60.01 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 32.03 | Bet365 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | O2_5 | 32.96 | 5.20 | 0.20 | 71.37 | Bet365 |
| wolfsburg-vs-bayern-münchen | 1X | 51.63 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 39.41 | Bet365 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | O0_5 | 91.42 | 1.15 | 0.84 | 5.13 | Betway |
| Bayer Leverkusen | O1_5 | 78.56 | 1.73 | 0.66 | 35.91 | Bet365 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | O2_5 | 57.85 | 3.40 | 0.45 | 96.70 | Bet365 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | O3_5 | 35.62 | 8.00 | 0.28 | 184.98 | Bet365 |
| bayer-leverkusen-vs-freiburg | home_win | 76.80 | 2.45 | 0.67 | 88.15 | 188Bet |
| bayer-leverkusen-vs-freiburg | 1X | 85.33 | 1.50 | 0.76 | 27.99 | Bet365 |
| borussia-m'gladbach-vs-tsg-hoffenheim | U5_5 | 88.43 | 1.30 | 0.80 | 14.96 | Bet365 |
| borussia-m'gladbach-vs-tsg-hoffenheim | home_win | 70.29 | 2.10 | 0.56 | 47.61 | 188Bet |
| borussia-m'gladbach-vs-tsg-hoffenheim | 1X | 82.47 | 1.38 | 0.70 | 13.81 | Bet365 |
| vfb-stuttgart-vs-1.-fc-köln | away_win | 64.67 | 3.00 | 0.53 | 94.01 | 188Bet |
| vfb-stuttgart-vs-1.-fc-köln | X2 | 79.46 | 1.70 | 0.67 | 35.08 | Bet365 |
| augsburg-vs-greuther-fürth | X2 | 51.44 | 2.50 | 0.32 | 28.61 | Bet365 |
team analysis
| Team | Fixture | Team xG | Team xG Conceded | Form | Table Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha Berlin | borussia dortmund v. hertha berlin | 1.25 | 0.85 | 0.940 | 16 |
| Borussia Dortmund | borussia dortmund v. hertha berlin | 2.17 | 1.79 | 1.032 | 2 |
| Bayern Munich | vfl wolfsburg v. bayern munich | 2.19 | 1.41 | 1.044 | 1 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | vfl wolfsburg v. bayern munich | 1.98 | 1.24 | 1.044 | 12 |
| SC Freiburg | bayer leverkusen v. sc freiburg | 2.15 | 1.61 | 1.040 | 6 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | bayer leverkusen v. sc freiburg | 2.03 | 1.04 | 1.032 | 3 |
| VfL BOCHUM | union berlin v. vfl bochum | 1.45 | 1.97 | 0.940 | 13 |
| Union Berlin | union berlin v. vfl bochum | 1.67 | 0.77 | 1.132 | 5 |
| Borussia Monchengladbach | borussia monchengladbach v. 1899 hoffenheim | 1.96 | 1.64 | 0.980 | 10 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | borussia monchengladbach v. 1899 hoffenheim | 1.32 | 1.92 | 0.780 | 9 |
| VfB Stuttgart | vfb stuttgart v. fc koln | 1.18 | 1.42 | 0.804 | 15 |
| FC Koln | vfb stuttgart v. fc koln | 2.17 | 1.15 | 1.112 | 7 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | fsv mainz 05 v. eintracht frankfurt | 1.24 | 1.71 | 0.940 | 8 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | fsv mainz 05 v. eintracht frankfurt | 0.77 | 1.55 | 0.772 | 11 |
| FC Augsburg | fc augsburg v. spvgg greuther furth | 0.99 | 2.15 | 0.840 | 14 |
| SpVgg Greuther Furth | fc augsburg v. spvgg greuther furth | 0.68 | 1.79 | 0.780 | 18 |
| RB Leipzig | arminia bielefeld v. rb leipzig | 1.47 | 0.92 | 1.024 | 4 |
| Arminia Bielefeld | arminia bielefeld v. rb leipzig | 0.59 | 2.35 | 0.756 | 17 |
match results
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| borussia dortmund v. hertha berlin | 55.9% | 15.3% | 28.8% |
| vfl wolfsburg v. bayern munich | 39.1% | 12.5% | 48.3% |
| bayer leverkusen v. sc freiburg | 76.9% | 8.5% | 14.7% |
| union berlin v. vfl bochum | 73.0% | 12.2% | 14.9% |
| borussia monchengladbach v. 1899 hoffenheim | 70.4% | 12.2% | 17.5% |
| vfb stuttgart v. fc koln | 20.5% | 14.8% | 64.5% |
| fsv mainz 05 v. eintracht frankfurt | 56.8% | 18.5% | 24.8% |
| fc augsburg v. spvgg greuther furth | 48.5% | 19.6% | 31.7% |
| arminia bielefeld v. rb leipzig | 10.7% | 12.9% | 76.3% |
goal probability matrix
| TeamName | zero | one | two | three | four | five | six |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha Berlin | 27.8% | 35.6% | 22.8% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 17.7% | 30.6% | 26.5% | 15.3% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Bayern Munich | 10.8% | 24.0% | 26.7% | 19.9% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 13.0% | 26.5% | 27.1% | 18.4% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| SC Freiburg | 18.9% | 31.5% | 26.2% | 14.6% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4.0% | 12.9% | 20.7% | 22.2% | 17.9% | 11.5% | 6.2% |
| VfL BOCHUM | 37.0% | 36.8% | 18.3% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Union Berlin | 12.7% | 26.2% | 27.0% | 18.6% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Borussia Monchengladbach | 11.8% | 25.2% | 26.9% | 19.2% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 31.7% | 36.4% | 20.9% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 35.3% | 36.8% | 19.1% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| FC Koln | 16.8% | 30.0% | 26.7% | 15.9% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 24.0% | 34.3% | 24.4% | 11.6% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 39.0% | 36.7% | 17.3% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| FC Augsburg | 27.6% | 35.5% | 22.9% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| SpVgg Greuther Furth | 35.3% | 36.8% | 19.1% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| RB Leipzig | 15.3% | 28.8% | 27.0% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 49.2% | 34.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
backtest performance (beta)
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