liam hartley




bundesliga odds generated at: 19:33:42 14/05/2022



value bets

Team/Fixture Market Calc Prob (%) Bookies Odds Kelly Criterion (%) Alpha (%) Bookies
VfL Wolfsburg O0_5 86.51 1.25 0.76 8.14 Betway
VfL Wolfsburg O1_5 60.01 2.20 0.42 32.03 Bet365
VfL Wolfsburg O2_5 32.96 5.20 0.20 71.37 Bet365
wolfsburg-vs-bayern-münchen 1X 51.63 2.70 0.34 39.41 Bet365
Bayer Leverkusen O0_5 91.42 1.15 0.84 5.13 Betway
Bayer Leverkusen O1_5 78.56 1.73 0.66 35.91 Bet365
Bayer Leverkusen O2_5 57.85 3.40 0.45 96.70 Bet365
Bayer Leverkusen O3_5 35.62 8.00 0.28 184.98 Bet365
bayer-leverkusen-vs-freiburg home_win 76.80 2.45 0.67 88.15 188Bet
bayer-leverkusen-vs-freiburg 1X 85.33 1.50 0.76 27.99 Bet365
borussia-m'gladbach-vs-tsg-hoffenheim U5_5 88.43 1.30 0.80 14.96 Bet365
borussia-m'gladbach-vs-tsg-hoffenheim home_win 70.29 2.10 0.56 47.61 188Bet
borussia-m'gladbach-vs-tsg-hoffenheim 1X 82.47 1.38 0.70 13.81 Bet365
vfb-stuttgart-vs-1.-fc-köln away_win 64.67 3.00 0.53 94.01 188Bet
vfb-stuttgart-vs-1.-fc-köln X2 79.46 1.70 0.67 35.08 Bet365
augsburg-vs-greuther-fürth X2 51.44 2.50 0.32 28.61 Bet365


team analysis

Team Fixture Team xG Team xG Conceded Form Table Position
Hertha Berlin borussia dortmund v. hertha berlin 1.25 0.85 0.940 16
Borussia Dortmund borussia dortmund v. hertha berlin 2.17 1.79 1.032 2
Bayern Munich vfl wolfsburg v. bayern munich 2.19 1.41 1.044 1
VfL Wolfsburg vfl wolfsburg v. bayern munich 1.98 1.24 1.044 12
SC Freiburg bayer leverkusen v. sc freiburg 2.15 1.61 1.040 6
Bayer Leverkusen bayer leverkusen v. sc freiburg 2.03 1.04 1.032 3
VfL BOCHUM union berlin v. vfl bochum 1.45 1.97 0.940 13
Union Berlin union berlin v. vfl bochum 1.67 0.77 1.132 5
Borussia Monchengladbach borussia monchengladbach v. 1899 hoffenheim 1.96 1.64 0.980 10
1899 Hoffenheim borussia monchengladbach v. 1899 hoffenheim 1.32 1.92 0.780 9
VfB Stuttgart vfb stuttgart v. fc koln 1.18 1.42 0.804 15
FC Koln vfb stuttgart v. fc koln 2.17 1.15 1.112 7
FSV Mainz 05 fsv mainz 05 v. eintracht frankfurt 1.24 1.71 0.940 8
Eintracht Frankfurt fsv mainz 05 v. eintracht frankfurt 0.77 1.55 0.772 11
FC Augsburg fc augsburg v. spvgg greuther furth 0.99 2.15 0.840 14
SpVgg Greuther Furth fc augsburg v. spvgg greuther furth 0.68 1.79 0.780 18
RB Leipzig arminia bielefeld v. rb leipzig 1.47 0.92 1.024 4
Arminia Bielefeld arminia bielefeld v. rb leipzig 0.59 2.35 0.756 17


match results

Fixture Home Draw Away
borussia dortmund v. hertha berlin 55.9% 15.3% 28.8%
vfl wolfsburg v. bayern munich 39.1% 12.5% 48.3%
bayer leverkusen v. sc freiburg 76.9% 8.5% 14.7%
union berlin v. vfl bochum 73.0% 12.2% 14.9%
borussia monchengladbach v. 1899 hoffenheim 70.4% 12.2% 17.5%
vfb stuttgart v. fc koln 20.5% 14.8% 64.5%
fsv mainz 05 v. eintracht frankfurt 56.8% 18.5% 24.8%
fc augsburg v. spvgg greuther furth 48.5% 19.6% 31.7%
arminia bielefeld v. rb leipzig 10.7% 12.9% 76.3%


goal probability matrix

TeamName zero one two three four five six
Hertha Berlin 27.8% 35.6% 22.8% 9.7% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2%
Borussia Dortmund 17.7% 30.6% 26.5% 15.3% 6.6% 2.3% 0.7%
Bayern Munich 10.8% 24.0% 26.7% 19.9% 11.0% 4.9% 1.8%
VfL Wolfsburg 13.0% 26.5% 27.1% 18.4% 9.4% 3.8% 1.3%
SC Freiburg 18.9% 31.5% 26.2% 14.6% 6.1% 2.0% 0.6%
Bayer Leverkusen 4.0% 12.9% 20.7% 22.2% 17.9% 11.5% 6.2%
VfL BOCHUM 37.0% 36.8% 18.3% 6.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Union Berlin 12.7% 26.2% 27.0% 18.6% 9.6% 4.0% 1.4%
Borussia Monchengladbach 11.8% 25.2% 26.9% 19.2% 10.3% 4.4% 1.6%
1899 Hoffenheim 31.7% 36.4% 20.9% 8.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1%
VfB Stuttgart 35.3% 36.8% 19.1% 6.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
FC Koln 16.8% 30.0% 26.7% 15.9% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8%
FSV Mainz 05 24.0% 34.3% 24.4% 11.6% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt 39.0% 36.7% 17.3% 5.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
FC Augsburg 27.6% 35.5% 22.9% 9.8% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 35.3% 36.8% 19.1% 6.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
RB Leipzig 15.3% 28.8% 27.0% 16.8% 7.9% 3.0% 0.9%
Arminia Bielefeld 49.2% 34.9% 12.4% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%




backtest performance (beta)

backtest performance for the bundesliga

backtest performance is currently not representative of actual performance
please click here to see this seasons performance

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the most profitable method is to use human judgement along with algorithmic advice

by liam hartley x estephe corlin



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