liam hartley




laliga odds generated at: 14:33:42 22/05/2022



value bets

Team/Fixture Market Calc Prob (%) Bookies Odds Kelly Criterion (%) Alpha (%) Bookies
elche-vs-getafe away_win 51.04 2.73 0.33 39.34 188Bet
elche-vs-getafe X2 76.99 1.38 0.60 6.25 Bet365


team analysis

Team Fixture Team xG Team xG Conceded Form Table Position
Alaves alaves v. cadiz 1.12 1.62 0.932 20
Cadiz alaves v. cadiz 1.94 1.57 0.872 18
Barcelona barcelona v. villarreal 1.07 0.64 1.020 2
Villarreal barcelona v. villarreal 2.11 1.55 0.956 7
Espanyol granada cf v. espanyol 0.88 1.70 0.772 13
Granada CF granada cf v. espanyol 1.19 1.26 0.968 16
Osasuna osasuna v. mallorca 0.89 1.61 0.804 10
Mallorca osasuna v. mallorca 1.09 1.71 0.956 17
Atletico Madrid real sociedad v. atletico madrid 1.52 0.70 0.960 3
Real Sociedad real sociedad v. atletico madrid 1.92 1.41 0.940 6
Athletic Club sevilla v. athletic club 1.39 1.17 1.040 8
Sevilla sevilla v. athletic club 1.35 1.53 0.932 4
Getafe elche v. getafe 0.75 0.48 0.924 14
Elche elche v. getafe 0.46 1.73 0.884 15


match results

Fixture Home Draw Away
alaves v. cadiz 31.8% 16.3% 51.8%
barcelona v. villarreal 57.1% 18.1% 24.6%
granada cf v. espanyol 60.6% 20.5% 18.9%
osasuna v. mallorca 36.6% 21.5% 41.8%
real sociedad v. atletico madrid 36.1% 16.6% 47.4%
sevilla v. athletic club 35.8% 18.6% 45.5%
elche v. getafe 23.0% 26.0% 51.0%


goal probability matrix

TeamName zero one two three four five six
Alaves 28.2% 35.7% 22.6% 9.6% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2%
Cadiz 20.4% 32.4% 25.8% 13.7% 5.4% 1.7% 0.5%
Barcelona 23.2% 33.9% 24.7% 12.0% 4.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Villarreal 38.3% 36.8% 17.6% 5.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Espanyol 50.0% 34.7% 12.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Granada CF 27.3% 35.4% 23.0% 10.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Osasuna 35.6% 36.8% 19.0% 6.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Mallorca 33.0% 36.6% 20.3% 7.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Atletico Madrid 21.9% 33.3% 25.2% 12.8% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4%
Real Sociedad 26.3% 35.1% 23.5% 10.5% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Athletic Club 26.4% 35.2% 23.4% 10.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Sevilla 30.5% 36.2% 21.5% 8.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Getafe 36.5% 36.8% 18.5% 6.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Elche 52.8% 33.7% 10.8% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%




backtest performance (beta)

backtest performance for the laliga

backtest performance is currently not representative of actual performance
please click here to see this seasons performance

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by liam hartley x estephe corlin



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