liam hartley




laliga report generated at: 16:33:51 10/11/2022

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value bets

Team/Fixture Market Calc Prob (%) Bookies Odds Kelly Criterion Alpha (%) Bookies
valencia v. real betis away_win 55.25% 3.75 0.43 107.0 William Hill
valencia v. real betis X2 76.92% 1.75 0.64 34.0 William Hill
rayo vallecano v. celta vigo home_win 66.23% 2.23 0.51 48.0 William Hill
rayo vallecano v. celta vigo 1X 84.75% 1.32 0.73 12.0 William Hill
Rayo Vallecano O0_5 79.37% 1.33 0.64 5.0 Betway
Rayo Vallecano O1_5 46.51% 2.38 0.24 11.0 Bet365
Real Betis O0_5 74.07% 1.48 0.56 9.0 Betway


team backtest

Team Fixture Team xG
Valencia valencia v. real betis 1.20
Real Betis valencia v. real betis 1.39
Celta Vigo rayo vallecano v. celta vigo 0.71
Rayo Vallecano rayo vallecano v. celta vigo 1.56
Real Madrid real madrid v. cadiz 2.24
Cadiz real madrid v. cadiz 0.99


goal probability matrix

Team/Fixture zero one two three four five
Valencia 41.8% 36.5% 15.9% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Real Betis 26.0% 35.0% 23.6% 10.6% 3.6% 1.0%
Celta Vigo 46.6% 35.6% 13.6% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Rayo Vallecano 20.7% 32.6% 25.7% 13.5% 5.3% 1.7%
Real Madrid 9.1% 21.8% 26.1% 20.9% 12.5% 6.0%
Cadiz 38.4% 36.8% 17.6% 5.6% 1.3% 0.3%


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