liam hartley

please gamble responsibly

recommended betting strategy
track your profit or losses as you bet
use the kelly criterion to weight your bets across each game
do not use accumulator bets in order to reduce risk
"under" bets are predicted less accurately by the model
never bet more than you can afford to lose

glossary of terms

a value bet a bet whereby the outcome is more likely than the bookies odds imply
O0_5, O1_5.. "over 0.5 goals", "over 1.5 goals" etc. aka "1 or more goals" and "2 or more goals" respectively
U0_5, U1_5.. "under 0.5 goals", "under 1.5 goals" etc. aka "no goals" and "1 or less goals" respectively
BTTS_Y both teams to score
BTTS_N neither team to score
draw no bet team to win or your stake is returned in the case of a draw
1X home wins or draw (double chance markets)
12 home or away win (double chance markets)
X2 away wins or draw (double chance markets)
alpha (%) the % difference between the algorithm's odds and the bookmakers odds
kelly criterion mathematically proven method to almost guarantee wealth in the long run by assigning x% of your total bank roll to each bet
calc prob (%) the algorithms calculated probability of that outcome
bookies odds best odds offered by a bookmaker for that outcome in decimal format

the most profitable method is to use human judgement along with algorithmic advice

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